2017 Arizona Auction Review - higher estimate lots

The prior post reviewed lower estimate lots at the 2017 Arizona collector car auctions, which built on the post reviewing the performance of the auction companies Bonhams, Gooding & Company, and RM Sotheby’s. This post looks at the cars in the higher estimate group from those three auctions. A car is assigned to the higher estimate group if the mid-estimate (the average of the pre-auction low estimate and high estimate) was at least $250,000. To further help with the evaluation of the strength of the bidding and the accuracy of the pre-auction estimates, the lots are classified by the condition of the car. I did the classification and used the definitions in the Hagerty Price Guide - with an added condition (#5) for non-running basket-case cars. In this higher estimate group, there were no condition #5 category cars and only one condition #4 category car. Condition #3 category cars numbered 37 examples across the three auctions - while #2 category cars and #1 category cars totaled 62 and 10, respectively. Only cars that were sold are included and all prices are before fees.

The scatter plot below shows results for the three auction companies for the higher estimate group. Each auction company and condition group can be plotted separately, and by moving the cursor over each point, the lot, auction, mid-estimate, and sale price can be seen. A single lot can be highlighted after selecting one of the three auctions in the drop-down menu, and then typing the lot number into the text box. Regression equations and trend lines can be plotted too by checking the box. Selecting ‘All’ auctions will perform the regression on the condition group(s) for all three auctions combined (where there is sufficient data), while the other menu options do not combine results for the regressions. The prices are before buyer’s fees.

The only condition #4 category car was a single-family owner 1955 Mercedes-Benz 300 SL Gullwing. Offered by Gooding & Company, lot 18, had a pre-auction mid-estimate of $1,000,000 and sold for $1,325,000. While the condition of the car may have made it hard to accurately value before the auction, the single-family ownership provenance may have encouraged strong bidding too.

The three auction companies had more cars in the condition #3 category group, which resulted in the following regression equation:

$price = $7860 + 0.76 x $mid-estimate

The 0.76 regression coefficient (the beta) suggests that buyers paid 76 percent (before fees) of the pre-auction mid-estimate plus $7,860 (the alpha) for cars in this condition group. The r² of the regression was a high 0.99, which means that the mid-estimate explains 99 percent of the variance in the price. This high r² number may be due to three cars sold at the Bonhams auction. Lot 24 was the 1963 Jaguar E-type Lightweight Competition, which had a pre-auction mid-estimate of $8,250,000 and sold for $6,700,000 (all prices are before fees). 

Lot 44 was the 1952 Ferrari 340 America Spider Competizione s/n 0196A by Vignale, which had a pre-auction mid-estimate of $8,250,000 and sold for $5,800,000. 

Lot 30 was the 1931 Alfa Romeo 6C 1750 5th Series Supercharged Gran Sport Spider by Zagato, which had a pre-auction mid-estimate of $3,100,000 and sold for $2,550,000. 

These three points, and especially lots 24 and 44, make for a clean linear regression. One car that stands out from this regression was auctioned by RM Sotheby’s is lot 232, the 1924 Isotta Fraschini Tipo 8A Landaulet Sala & Riva, which had a pre-auction mid-estimate of $725,000 and sold for $395,000. 

While Isotta Fraschinis used to be popular cars in the U.S. back when they were new, their popularity may now be more limited, which makes pre-auction estimates more challenging and or limits buyer enthusiasm.

The condition #2 category cars were the most numerous of the higher estimate group with 62 cars sold across the three auctions. The regression equation for the category is the following:

$price = -$6224 + 0.84 x $mid-estimate

The 0.84 regression coefficient (the beta) suggests that buyers paid 84 percent (before fees) of the pre-auction mid-estimate, and as such were comfortable paying close to the pre-auction mid-estimate for a car in this condition #2 category. In contrast to the regression of condition #3 category cars, the intercept (the alpha) is a negative $6224, which means that after taking into consideration the pre-auction mid-estimate, cars in the condition #2 category were generally discounted by this amount. The r² of the regression was a slightly lower 0.95, which means that the mid-estimate explains 95 percent of the variance in the price. One car that seems to have played a big part in the regression was auctioned by Bonhams. Lot 54 was the 1928 Mercedes-Benz Type S 26/120/180 Supercharged Sports Tourer Erdmann & Rossi, which had a pre-auction mid-estimate of $5,500,000 and sold for $4,375,000 (all prices are before fees). 

Two lots that seemed to do well for the condition #2 category were sold by RM Sotheby’s, which were lots 121 and 263. Lot 121 was the 2003 Aston Martin DB AR1 by Zagato, which had a pre-auction mid-estimate of $312,500 and sold for $345,000. 

Lot 263 was the 1969 Ferrari 365 GTS s/n 12489 by Pininfarina, which had a pre-auction mid-estimate of $3,200,000 and sold for $3,275,000. 

These cars were either conservatively valued before the auctions and or saw strong bidding during the auctions. On the other side of the results for the condition #2 category of cars, lot 48 at Bonhams and lot 28 at Gooding & Company seemed to be optimistically valued before the auctions and or saw limited bidding during the auctions. Lot 48 at Bonhams was the 1966 Ferrari 275 GTB Scaglietti Pininfarina s/n 08973, which had a pre-auction mid-estimate of $3,000,000 and sold for $1,575,000. 

This result is interesting considering the two Ferrari 275 GTBs that Gooding & Company failed to sell. Lot 46, the 1967 Ferrari 275 GTB/4 s/n 10563 (estimate $3,000,000 to $3,400,000) stopped at a high bid of $2,400,000, and lot 146, the 1966 Ferrari 275 GTB Long Nose Alloy s/n 08117 (estimate $2,900,000 to $3,200,000) stopped at a high bid of $2,500,000. 

Lot 28 at Gooding & Company was the 1936 Bentley 4 1/4 Litre Cabriolet Antem, which had a pre-auction mid-estimate of $600,000 and sold for $320,000. 

Considering that RM Sotheby’s failed to sell lot 153, another condition #2 category car - a 1936 Bentley 3 1/2 Litre Sedanca Coupe by Windovers 

 

with pre-auction mid-estimate of $362,500 but only a high bid of $270,000 – perhaps the markets for Ferrari 275 GTBs and 1930s Bentleys are changing.   

There were fewer best-in-the-world condition #1 category cars in the higher estimate group than in the lower estimate group, at 10 and 15, respectively. With few observations available, the r² was 1.0, meaning that the mid-estimate of the cars in this category explained 100 percent of the variance in the sale price. With so few cars and apparently little disagreement about the value of those cars, the errors for lots in the condition #1 category regression tend to offset each other. The regression equation for the category is the following:

$price = $20 731 + 0.76 x $mid-estimate

In this condition category, the regression coefficient (the beta) of 0.76 means that buyers paid 76 percent of the mid-estimate plus an additional $20731 (the alpha) all before fees. Compared to the regression of condition #1 category cars in the lower estimate group, which had a beta of 0.62 and an alpha of $12963, the values of alpha and beta are greater in the higher estimate group. It suggests that the pre-auction mid-estimates are viewed as a bit more accurate in the higher estimate group and that bidders are willing to pay a higher premium for cars in this condition and estimate group. Two lots that stand out in this condition #1 category group were sold by RM Sotheby’s and were lots 231 and 258. Lot 231 was the 1961 Ferrari 400 Superamerica SWB Coupe Aerodinamico s/n 2841SA by Pininfarina, which had a pre-auction mid-estimate of $3,550,000 and sold for $2,800,000 (all prices are before fees). 

Lot 258 was the 1939 Mercedes-Benz 540K Special Roadster by Sindelfingen, which had a pre-auction mid-estimate of $7,900,000 and sold for $6,000,000. 

 

In terms of scooping up a good deal and or an example of a car with an optimistic pre-auction estimate, RM Sotheby’s lot 134, a 1939 Bugatti T57 Cabriolet by Letourneur et Marchand had a pre-auction mid-estimate of $1,375,000 and sold for $925,000.

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JohnWileyCars provides no warranty about the content or accuracy of the content published here. JohnWileyCars shall not be liable for any loss of profit or any other damages resulting from the use of the information published here.

Arizona Auctions Review

2017 Arizona Auctions Review

With the 2017 Arizona collector car auction cycle now complete, here is a look at how the results of the high-end auction companies (Bonhams, Gooding & Company, and RM Sotheby’s) compared. While all three had sales rates between 80 and 90 percent and each sold over $30 million of cars (all prices referenced in this post are before fees), differences in the results appear when making a distinction in the cars that were offered. Unlike a classification by condition as with the post on RM Sotheby’s Duemila Ruote auction, here the distinction is a price threshold of $250,000. Cars with a pre-auction mid-estimate (the average of the low and high estimate) that was less than $250,000 go in one group, and those with a pre-auction mid-estimate above that threshold go in the other group. Using this distinction, the first auction company performance difference is that one of the auction company’s pre-auction mid-estimates are much better at predicting the sale price of cars in the lower estimate group, but their mid-estimates are the worst at predicting the sale price of cars in the higher estimate group. Similarly, one auction company had pre-auction mid-estimates that were the best at predicting sale prices for cars in the higher estimate group, but their mid-estimates were the worst for cars in the lower estimate group. For all three auction companies, their pre-auction mid-estimates were either consistently too high or too low, depending on the price group. Given the price group variations among auction companies, these findings could be helpful in determining which is the best company to buy or sell a high or low priced car.

The scatter plot below shows results for the three auction companies. Each price group can be plotted separately, and by moving the cursor over each point, the lot, mid-estimate, and sale price can be seen. The prices are before buyer’s fees and prices for unsold lots are zero.

The company with pre-auction mid-estimates that were the most accurate in predicting the sale price of cars in the lower estimate group was Gooding & Company. Their sale rate for the group was 100 percent (compared to 89 percent for Bonhams and 99 percent for RM Sotheby’s), which helped raise the correlation coefficient of their mid-estimates to sale prices to 0.72 (compared to 0.50 for Bonhams and 0.61 for RM Sotheby’s). Their R² (the amount of variance in the sale price explained by the pre-auction mid-estimate) was also the highest at 0.74 (compared to 0.31 for Bonhams and 0.58 for RM Sotheby’s).

Gooding & Company’s accuracy with pre-auction estimates in the lower estimate group is despite the sale of lot 62, the 1958 Porsche 356 A Super Speedster, which sold for $310,000 (estimate range $200,000 to $275,000). This car was a basket-case, and as was observed in the results of the Duemila Ruote auction, these cars are difficult to value accurately.

Unfortunately, Gooding & Company seemed to do poorly with the sale of cars in the higher estimate group as shown by their low R² of 0.32 for this group (compared to 0.91 for Bonhams and 0.86 for RM Sotheby’s). While Gooding & Company’s sale rate was not the worst at 67 percent (compared to 66 percent for Bonhams and 80 percent for RM Sotheby’s), instead it is probably because Gooding & Company’s unsold lots had the highest total value relative to the total value of the lots they did sell in that higher estimate group. Adding up the mid-estimates of their unsold lots totals $17,775,000, which is 62 percent of $28,865,000, which is the sum of the mid-estimates of the lots they did sell. At Bonhams, adding up mid-estimates of unsold lots is only $8,387,500, which is just 23 percent of $36,587,500, which is the sum of the mid-estimates of sold lots. RM Sotheby’s has a similar percentage of unsold value to sold value at 21 percent, which is the $10,612,500 sum of mid-estimates for unsold lots to the $51,470,000 sum of mid-estimates for sold lots.

Gooding & Company seemed to suffer most in the higher estimate group due to a couple of lots that failed to sell. Lot 46, the 1967 Ferrari 275 GTB/4 s/n 10563 (estimate $3,000,000 to $3,400,000) stopped at a high bid of $2,400,000, and lot 146, the 1966 Ferrari 275 GTB Long Nose Alloy s/n 08117 (estimate $2,900,000 to $3,200,000) stopped at a high bid of $2,500,000. Had these two cars sold, along with lot 34, the 1936 Squire 1 ½ Litre Tourer Ranalah (estimate $1,500,000 to $2,000,000) that stopped at the high bid of $1,050,000 - Gooding & Company’s results in the higher estimate group would have improved.

Bonhams had pre-auction mid-estimates that were the best predictors for the final sale price for cars in the higher estimate group, but that was partly because they offered the fewest number of lots in that price group with just 29 (compared to 61 at Gooding & Company and 64 at RM Sotheby’s). The correlation coefficient for Bonhams was 0.76 (compared to 0.44 for Gooding & Company and 0.78 for RM Sotheby’s). The R² of their pre-auction mid-estimates to sale prices was 0.91 (compared to 0.32 for Gooding & Company and 0.86 for RM Sotheby’s).

Bonhams results in the higher estimate group were helped by two sales, which were lot 44, the 1952 Ferrari 340 America Spider Competizione by Vignale s/n 0196A, which sold for $5,800,000 (estimate range $7,500,000 to $9,000,000), and lot 24, the ex-Bob Jane 1963 Jaguar E-type Lightweight Competition s/n S850667 engine no. V682558P, which sold for $6,700,000 (estimate range $7,500,000 to $9,000,000).

In a similar reversal to the predictive power of Gooding & Company’s pre-auction mid-estimates with respect to sale prices, Bonhams had the worst performance when it came to cars in the lower estimate group. It is likely because their sale rate for the lower estimate group cars was the lowest at 89 percent (compared to 100 percent at Gooding & Company and 99 percent at RM Sotheby’s). The correlation coefficient for Bonhams in the lower estimate group of pre-auction mid-estimate to sale price was just 0.50 (compared to 0.72 for Gooding & Company and 0.61 for RM Sotheby’s). The R² value of variation explained also was the lowest at 0.31 for Bonhams (compared to 0.74 for Gooding & Company and 0.58 for RM Sotheby’s).

One final observation of the results of the auction companies was the direction and magnitude of the difference between the pre-auction mid-estimate and the sale price. In the lower estimate group, all three auction companies had regression intercepts that were greater than zero. The implication is that (after multiplying the mid-estimate by a factor in the range of 0.50 to 0.72) the estimates for the lower estimate group were consistently less than the sale price by $13,441 to $13,904 – except for Gooding & Company which had estimates that were just $3,492 too low. The opposite was true in the higher estimate group, where excluding the poor results from Gooding & Company, the intercept was -$211,893 for Bonhams and -$93,699 for RM Sotheby’s (Gooding & Company had an intercept of +$54,261). The implication being that both Bonhams and RM Sotheby’s had pre-auction estimates for cars in the higher estimate group that (after multiplying by a factor of 0.76 to 0.78) overestimated the sale price by between $93,699 and $211,893. Given the coefficients for both price groups were between 0.50 and 0.78, but the resulting intercepts were positive for the lower estimate group and negative for the higher estimate group, it seems buyers were more aggressive in bidding for cars in the lower estimate group.

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JohnWileyCars provides no warranty about the content or accuracy of the content published here. JohnWileyCars shall not be liable for any loss of profit or any other damages resulting from the use of the information published here.

Arizona 2017 Auction Preview

Previewing the odd lots  

Looking ahead to the auctions occurring in and around Scottsdale Arizona the third week of January 2017, there are several unusual cars being auctioned at Barrett-Jackson, Bonhams, Gooding & Company, and RM Sotheby’s that warrant a closer look. Finding comparison sales for these cars is not especially difficult, but there are some that are easier than others. At the time of writing, lot numbers, descriptions, and estimates were either not available or incomplete, but as much information as possible has been included.

The plot below contains lots discussed in this post and includes comparison sales from prior auctions. Hovering over each point will show the lot and the comparison sale it represents.

Barrett-Jackson

The three cars that caught my attention for this auction were the Porsche 964 RWB Targa, the Lancia Thema 8.32, and the Cheetah. Lot #1333 is the 1991 Porsche 964 RWB Targa, which is the creation of Akira Nakai, the founder of RWD (RAUH-Welt Begriff). The car features mostly cosmetic modifications, and the build process can be seen on YouTube. Currently listed for sale at Cats Exotics, reputedly for an asking price of $149,000, the car is now going to auction. While not as comprehensive a conversion as a Singer, the RWB cars have a strong following in Japan and other parts of East Asia. Although they appear in the U.S. occasionally, such as this 993 at Lime Rock Park in 2012. 

A 993 RWB coupe with an estimate of $130,000 - $160,000 failed to sell at Auctions America in Santa Monica earlier in 2016 so it will be interesting to see if the 964 Targa can do better.

Lot #141 is the 1991 Lancia Thema 8.32 sedan, which is unusual in that it is a FWD sedan, with a 5-speed manual transmission, and a 3.0 liter V8 based on Ferrari’s 328 engine. The platform is shared with the Saab 9000, Alfa Romeo 164, and a Fiat, but the Lancia was the only one to get a V8. The engine was not carried over unchanged, but instead, its flat-plane crankshaft was replaced with a smoother-running and lower-revving cross-plane version. The car also has a retractable trunk lid spoiler. Thema 8.32s have sold at auction over the past couple of years, mostly with prices in the range of $16,000 to $26,000. Two are currently available for sale on Classic Driver, but they are not in the U.S. The novelty of driving a Ferrari-engined Lancia sedan in the U.S. could push the sale price into the higher end of the range.

Last on the list for Barrett-Jackson is lot #1376, the 1964 Cheetah, which is #6 of the original 15 cars produced and is spec’d with an (OMG) L88 427 Chevy. These cars are very light, and with an L88 427, this car is approaching McLaren M8 Can-Am car territory, but without as much tire. While these cars are easy to fake and a continuation series was made, this car appeared at the Goodwood Festival of Speed in 2016, so presumably, it has been authenticated. In 2015, another Cheetah was listed for sale on Hemmings for $580,000. Given the spec and the provenance of the car, it should easily exceed the asking price of the car from Hemmings, but it may not exceed the price of a Cobra 427 S/C.

Bonhams

The cars of interest from Bonhams are the Alfa Romeo 6C 1750 Zagato, the Ferrari 340 Vignale spider, and the Jaguar E-type lightweight. Lot #30 is the 1931 Alfa Romeo 6C 1750 5th Series Supercharged Gran Sport Spider by Zagato s/n 10814358, which as the listing points out, is a sister car to s/n 10814356, which they sold three years ago in Scottsdale for $3,080,000. Bonhams has the pre-auction estimate for lot #30 as $2.8M - $3.4M, so they seem to think the market has not changed much in the past three years. While s/n 10814356 appeared at Pebble Beach in 2012 

 

and later at Villa d’Este, the description of lot #30 (s/n 10814358) does not mention any concours appearances. RM auctioned another 1931 Alfa Romeo 6C 1750 Gran Sport Spider by Zagato (s/n 10814313) at Amelia Island in 2015 for $2.4M, which also appeared at Pebble Beach in 2012, so the estimate for lot #30 maybe optimistic.

Lot #44 is the 1952 Ferrari 340 America Spider Competizione by Vignale s/n 0196A, which has a pre-auction estimate range of $7.5M - $9M. With period race history by factory drivers, a big-block Lampredi V12, and body by Vignale, the car is a very desirable early sports racing Ferrari. It may not be as desirable as the 1957 Ferrari 335 Sport, however, which was auctioned in early 2016 by Artcurial for almost $36M. That car has an illustrious race history and 4-cam V12, but Bonhams seems to account for that in the lower pre-auction estimate range for the 340. A more realistic comparison point is the 1953 Ferrari 340 MM Spider by Vignale s/n 0350 AM, which also has period race history, and was sold by Gooding at Pebble Beach in 2012 for $4.7M. A slightly different comparison point is the 1951 Ferrari 340 America Barchetta by Touring s/n 0116/A auctioned by RM in Monaco in 2016 for $8.23M, which has period 24 Hours of Le Mans race history. While the value of highly collectible 1950s competition road racing Ferraris may have increased since 2012, it will be interesting to see how much of a difference the venue makes.

Last of cars at Bonhams, is lot 24 the Ex-Bob Jane 1963 Jaguar E-type Lightweight. Since this car is one of 12 lightweight E-types, which are covered in the excellent book Ultimate E-type The Competition Cars, it doesn’t compare well to a standard 1963 Jaguar E-type. Instead, it might be more informative to look at cars like the Aston Martin DB4GT, or the alloy-bodied Mercedes-Benz 300 SL Gullwing, or possibly a competition spec Ferrari 250 GT SWB. RM sold a DB4GT for $3.2M at their London auction in 2016, and in 2012, Gooding & Company sold an alloy bodied 300 SL Gullwing for $4.6M, but RM wasn’t able to sell one at Monterey in 2015 with a low estimate of $5.5M. Considering the last lightweight Jaguar E-type sold at auction in 1999 for about $900,000, that observation on its own is not too helpful. Although using a Ferrari 250 GT SWB SEFAC sales price from the same era of $1,350,000, and a 2016 Gooding & Company Pebble Beach sale price of $13,500,000 for the 1960 Ferrari 250 GT SWB s/n 1759 GT, the Jaguar could sell for ten times its 1999 price. Or it could sell for something closer to the DB4GT price.

Gooding & Company

Gooding & Company has a variety of interesting lots, but starting with the 1925 Bugatti Type 35 Grand Prix s/n 4487, the pre-auction estimate is $2.6M - $3.2M according to the excellent write-up by Hemmings. There are two recent sales for Type 35s, the Hellé Nice car s/n 4863 auctioned by Gooding & Company at Pebble Beach in 2014 for $2.97M, and the T35 s/n 4450 Bonhams sold at Monaco in 2016 for $1.1M. The variation in price between s/n 4450 and s/n 4863 does not seem to be explained by competition history or condition, so it will be interesting to see if s/n 4487 will be bid to its low estimate. 

The 1969 American Motors AMX/3 is another interesting car appearing at the Gooding & Company auction. It appeared at Pebble Beach in 2016, where it won its class. 

 

Designed by Bizzarrini, it is one of six built with the AMC 390 cubic-inch V8. This car was last listed for sale for $795,000 in 2013, but that was before its recent restoration. One possible comparison point is the Bizzarrini Manta, that did not sell at Gooding & Company’s 2012 Pebble Beach auction with an estimated range of $1M - $1.5M. Coincidentally, the Manta appeared alongside the AMX/3 at the Pebble Beach Concours in 2016. Another comparison point, with a sale price, is the Monteverdi Hai, which did sell at Gooding & Company’s Pebble Beach auction in 2012, for $577,500. Here is a photo of the Manta and the Hai side-by-side at that auction in 2012. 

 

It seems likely that bidding for the car will reach the estimate range of the Manta, especially considering its pre-restoration price.

Next on the list is the 1984 BMW Alpina C1 2.3, which previously did not sell on Bring a Trailer back in August of 2016, despite reaching a bid of $37,000. At the high end of actual sales is the E30 1986 BMW Alpina C2 2.5 sedan that sold on Bring a Trailer in August 2016 for $63,000, but the sedan won its class at the Greenwich Concours in 2016. A better comparison is the E30 1986 BMW Alpina C2 2.5 coupe that sold on Bring a Trailer in September 2016 for $34,000. So, it will be interesting to see what happens with the bidding on the 1984 C1 2.3 in January. Further information about Alpina and its cars can be found in the excellent book OAL-BB 50: 50 Years of BMW Alpina Automobiles.  

Gooding & Company also has 1996 Porsche 993 GT2 listed. So it seems the incredible result that RM Sotheby’s achieved at their 2016 London auction – where a 993 GT2 sold for almost $2.5M - has brought other examples to auction. Gooding & Company actually sold the same GT2 s/n WP0ZZZ99ZTS392139 at Amelia Island in 2015 for $973,500. 

Similarly, the 1997 Porsche 993 Turbo S listed at Gooding, will have to contend with the $420,224 that RM realized for a 1998 Porsche 993 Turbo S at the same 2016 London auction.

The last car at the Gooding & Company auction of interest is the 1949 Maserati A6/1500 Coupe by Pinin Farina s/n 078. This car did not sell at The Finest auction at Hershey in 2016, where it had a pre-auction estimate range of $675,000 - $700,000. One similar car is the 1949 Maserati A6 1500/3C Berlinetta by Pinin Farina s/n 086, which was sold by Bonhams at Quail Lodge in 2014 for $891,000. 

While I prefer the dark blue of s/n 078, the Borrani wire wheels on s/n 086 are appealing too.

RM Sotheby’s

Another BMW Alpina is going to auction in Arizona, and this one is a 1986 BMW Alpina B6 2.7, which is a 2-door E30 chassis car. With an additional 200 cc and fewer miles, the car at RM may go for more than the $34,000 that the 1986 BMW Alpina C2 (aka B6) 2.5 was sold for on Bring a Trailer last September.

The 1990 Mercedes-Benz 190 E 2.5-16 Evolution II being offered by RM is a low mileage (3,100 miles) example of the ultimate version of the W201. With a Cosworth developed 2.5 liter 16 valve 4-cylinder engine, the Evolution II features a comprehensive kit of aerodynamic improvements needed to homologate the car for DTM racing. A couple of other Evolution II cars have recently sold at auction, which will make it interesting to see where bidding on the car at RM Sotheby’s will go. A car with a claimed 885 miles was sold in September 2016 by Silverstone Auctions at their Salon Privé Sale for £202,500 (approximately $270,000). That sale is in the middle of the range of Evo IIs auctioned by Silverstone Auctions; one with 1,723 miles sold for £292,500 (approximately $405,600) at their Race Retro Auction in February 2016, and another with 25,500 miles sold for £120,375 (approximately $150,000) at their NEC auction in November 2016.

Like Gooding & Company, RM Sotheby’s also has a Porsche 993 GT2. Unlike the silver Gooding & Company car, or the Riviera Blue car that sold for $2,465,000, this one is speed yellow. Pictured below is a 1996 Porsche 993 GT2 in speed yellow - the picture was taken in 2014 in Carmel Valley at the PCA Werks Reunion.  

 

Another interesting Porsche of the GT2 variety is the 2011 Porsche 997 GT2 RS. Gooding & Company sold a car with fewer miles at their Pebble Beach auction in 2016 for $539,000. Another car with fewer miles was sold by Silverstone Auctions in 2015 at their Salon Privé auction for £315,000 (approximately $479,000).

The 1989 Nissan Skyline GT-R is an example of a car that passed the 25-year old private import restriction a several years ago, and the model has since become more common in the U.S. The car at RM Sotheby’s is described as having less than 15,000 miles, so it has less than half the miles of the car sold on Bring a Trailer in December 2016 for $27,500, and about 1/10^th the miles of the car also sold on Bring a Trailer in March of 2016 for $22,900. Among the three, there isn’t much choice in color or wheels, so the price of the RM Sotheby’s car may be mostly determined by condition. 

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JohnWileyCars provides no warranty about the content or accuracy of the content published here. JohnWileyCars shall not be liable for any loss of profit or any other damages resulting from the use of the information published here.

RM Sotheby’s Duemila Ruote Auction

Bidding Wars for Basket-Cases

RM Sotheby’s Duemila Ruote Auction in late November was unusual in many respects. The Italian Government needed to sell a seized collection of cars, boats, motorcycles, bicycles, and automobilia - and hired RM to do it. Held at the Fiera convention center outside Milan, close to 900 lots were sold over three days, and total sales exceeded €51 million. RM stated that 83 percent of the bidders were new to their registry, and over 1,000 bidders participated online.

I evaluated approximately 400 of the cars sold to understand why so many lots sold for multiples of their pre-auction estimates. I could not quantify if amateur hour bidding from the 83 percent was a factor; instead, I investigated if the condition of a car was a factor in it selling for over its pre-auction estimate. Classifying the cars into five categories according to the definitions in the Hagerty Price Guide - with an added condition (#5) for non-running basket-case cars - over 12 percent of the cars were basket-cases, none were best-in-the-world (#1), over 25 percent had obvious flaws (#4), almost 48 percent were good (#3), and close to 15 percent were local show winners (#2). While cars in the poorest condition were more likely to sell for many times their pre-auction estimate, cars in show condition often sold for prices close to their pre-auction estimate.

The scatterplot below shows the cars’ sale price on a log-scale compared to the pre-auction mid-estimate (an average of the low estimate and the high estimate), also on a log-scale. Pre-auction estimates for cars in condition category #5 were least accurate in relation to the actual sale price, which resulted in a flatter slope in the scatterplot (a regression coefficient of 0.70). Cars in excellent condition #2 had pre-auction estimates that were much more accurate, and the slope of the regression model for that group produced a line that is much closer to one (0.84). A slope of zero would mean the pre-auction estimates had no relation to the final sale price, while a slope of one would mean that the pre-auction estimates closely predicted the final sale prices.




The scatterplot will show the lot behind each point when hovering the cursor over a given point, and several outliers can be picked out in this way. Cars in poor (or worse) condition (#4 or #5) that sold for way more than their estimates include lot 567, the 1952 Aston Martin DB2 DHC Volante, which sold for €504,000 or 3.6 times its mid-estimate of €140,000. Another example is lot 265, a 1971 Maserati Ghibli 4.7 basket-case which sold for €179,200, or almost five times its mid-estimate. Cars that are potential show winners such as lot 602, the 1966 Ferrari 275 GTB 6 carb with an alloy body, sold for the auction high of €3,416,000, but that was just 30 percent more than the pre-auction mid-estimate of €2,600,000.

While the RM Duemila Ruote (two-thousand wheels) auction was unique in many ways, the strong sale prices achieved by some of the cars could be repeated at other auctions. The large percentage of new bidders may have played a role, but low pre-auction estimates on cars in poor (or worse) condition, and the subsequent bidding wars are the most likely cause.

RM Sotheby's Duemila Ruote auction catalog PDF (28 MB)

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